Tropical Cyclone Local Statement

HLSTAE

This product covers eastern Florida panhandle, Florida Big Bend, southeastern Alabama and southwestern Georgia

**NEW TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS IN EFFECT FOR INLAND FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND LIBERTY, FRANKLIN, WAKULLA COUNTIES. A FLOOD WATCH WAS ISSUED FOR MOST OF THE TRI-STATE AREA**

NEW INFORMATION ---------------

* CHANGES TO WATCHES AND WARNINGS: - A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for Central Walton and North Walton - The Tropical Storm Watch has been upgraded to a Tropical Storm Warning for Calhoun, Holmes, Inland Bay, Inland Franklin, Inland Gulf, Inland Wakulla, Jackson, Northern Liberty, Southern Liberty, and Washington

* CURRENT WATCHES AND WARNINGS: - A Tropical Storm Warning and Hurricane Watch are in effect for Central Walton and North Walton - A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Calhoun, Holmes, Inland Bay, Inland Franklin, Inland Gulf, Inland Wakulla, Jackson, Northern Liberty, Southern Liberty, and Washington - A Storm Surge Warning and Hurricane Warning are in effect for Coastal Bay and South Walton - A Storm Surge Warning and Tropical Storm Warning are in effect for Coastal Franklin, Coastal Gulf, Coastal Jefferson, and Coastal Wakulla - A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for Coastal Taylor - A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for Coastal Dixie - A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for Coffee, Dale, Geneva, Henry, and Houston

* STORM INFORMATION: - About 580 miles southwest of Walton Bay county line or about 580 miles southwest of Panama City - 23.3N 91.2W - Storm Intensity 80 mph - Movement East-northeast or 60 degrees at 9 mph

SITUATION OVERVIEW ------------------

At 5 AM ET, Hurricane Isaias was located in the southern Gulf with maximum sustained winds of 80 mph and moving ENE at 9 mph. There are overall no significant changes in the forecast reasoning from the previous advisory. Isaias is forecast to turn northward in the next day or so and accelerate in forward speed towards the central Gulf coast. Additional strengthening is anticipated through tonight, and may be near major hurricane strength prior to landfall. The wind field is expected to expand considerably and may be lopsided towards the east, which means impacts are likely well beyond the forecast cone, particularly east of the hurricane's center. Inland FL counties have now been upgraded from a Tropical Storm Watch to Warning, including Liberty, Franklin, and Wakulla Counties. Conditions could begin to deteriorate across the Florida Panhandle as early as Friday morning. Therefore, residents are urged to finalize their preparations today and early tomorrow.

Given the expected large size of Isaias as it nears northern Gulf coast, the wind threat may extend well into the eastern portions of the Tri-state area. An expected fast forward speed may also lead to the wind threat extending further inland, especially near the core of the storm. A Storm Surge Warning remains in effect from the Steinhatchee River west to the Okaloosa/Walton County line. Life- threatening inundation values of 5 to 7 feet above normally dry ground are forecast across the coastal Panhandle to Indian Pass, 4 to 6 feet from Indian Pass to the Steinhatchee River, and 2 to 4 feet from the Steinhatchee River to Yankeetown, coincident with the high tide. The greatest surge risk will be Friday through Friday night.

Soggy conditions across the region from recent rainfall will make much of the Tri-state area more sensitive to flooding from additional heavy rainfall from Isaias. Forecast rainfall totals of 3 to 7 inches is expected across much of the area, with isolated amounts of 10 or more inches. If realized, these values are likely to produce isolated to scattered flash flooding and some river flooding. Localized considerable flash flooding is also possible where bands of heavy rain move repeatedly over the same area. Given these factors, a Flood Watch was issued for counties west of the I- 75 corridor and Eastern FL Big Bend from Friday afternoon until Saturday evening. Isaias will also bring an elevated chance for several tornadoes across the Florida Panhandle and Western FL Big Bend on Friday into Saturday and Southeast AL & Southwest GA late Friday into Saturday.

POTENTIAL IMPACTS -----------------

* FLOODING RAIN: Protect against life-threatening rainfall flooding having possible extensive impacts across the Florida Panhandle, Southeast Alabama and parts of the Western Florida Big Bend & Southwest Georgia. Potential impacts include: - Major rainfall flooding may prompt many evacuations and rescues. - Rivers and tributaries may rapidly overflow their banks in multiple places. Small streams, creeks, and ditches may become dangerous rivers. Flood control systems and barriers may become stressed. - Flood waters can enter many structures within multiple communities, some structures becoming uninhabitable or washed away. Many places where flood waters may cover escape routes. Streets and parking lots become rivers of moving water with underpasses submerged. Driving conditions become dangerous. Many road and bridge closures with some weakened or washed out.

Protect against dangerous rainfall flooding having possible limited to significant impacts across the Eastern Florida Big Bend and parts of South Central Georgia.

* WIND: Protect against dangerous wind having possible significant impacts across the Florida Panhandle, Southwestern Florida Big Bend, and Southeast Alabama. Potential impacts in this area include: - Some damage to roofing and siding materials, along with damage to porches, awnings, carports, and sheds. A few buildings experiencing window, door, and garage door failures. Mobile homes damaged, especially if unanchored. Unsecured lightweight objects become dangerous projectiles. - Several large trees snapped or uprooted, but with greater numbers in places where trees are shallow rooted. Several fences and roadway signs blown over. - Some roads impassable from large debris, and more within urban or heavily wooded places. A few bridges, causeways, and access routes impassable. - Scattered power and communications outages, but more prevalent in areas with above ground lines.

Also, protect against hazardous wind having possible limited impacts across the Western Florida Big Bend and portions of far Southwestern Georgia.

Elsewhere across eastern Florida panhandle, Florida Big Bend, southeastern Alabama and southwestern Georgia, little to no impact is anticipated.

* SURGE: Protect against life-threatening surge having possible extensive impacts across the coastal Florida Panhandle and Florida Big Bend. Potential impacts in this area include: - Large areas of deep inundation with storm surge flooding accentuated by battering waves. Structural damage to buildings, with several washing away. Damage compounded by floating debris. Locations may be uninhabitable for an extended period. - Large sections of near-shore escape routes and secondary roads washed out or severely flooded. Flood control systems and barriers may become stressed. - Severe beach erosion with significant dune loss. - Major damage to marinas, docks, boardwalks, and piers. Many small craft broken away from moorings, especially in unprotected anchorages with some lifted onshore and stranded.

Elsewhere across eastern Florida panhandle, Florida Big Bend, southeastern Alabama and southwestern Georgia, little to no impact is anticipated.

* TORNADOES: Protect against a dangerous tornado event having possible significant impacts across the Florida Panhandle, Western Florida Big Bend, Southeast Alabama and most of Southwest Georgia. Potential impacts include: - The occurrence of scattered tornadoes can hinder the execution of emergency plans during tropical events. - Several places may experience tornado damage with a few spots of considerable damage, power loss, and communications failures. - Locations could realize roofs torn off frame houses, mobile homes demolished, boxcars overturned, large trees snapped or uprooted, vehicles tumbled, and small boats tossed about. Dangerous projectiles can add to the toll.

Protect against a tornado event having possible limited impacts across the Eastern Florida Big Bend and parts of South Central Georgia.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS ----------------------------------

* EVACUATIONS: Follow the advice of local officials

* OTHER PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION: Now is the time to complete all preparations to protect life and property in accordance with your emergency plan. Ensure you are in a safe location before the onset of strong winds or possible flooding.

If you are a visitor, be sure to know the name of the city in which you are staying and the name of the county in which it resides. Listen for these locations in local news updates. Pay attention for instructions from local authorities.

Storm surge is the leading killer associated with tropical storms and hurricanes! Make sure you are in a safe area away from the surge zone. Even if you are not in a surge-prone area, you could find yourself cutoff by flood waters during and after the storm. Heed evacuation orders issued by the local authorities.

Rapidly rising flood waters are deadly. If you are in a flood-prone area, consider moving to higher ground. Never drive through a flooded roadway. Remember, turn around don't drown!

If a Tornado Warning is issued for your area, be ready to shelter quickly, preferably away from windows and in an interior room not prone to flooding. If driving, scan the roadside for quick shelter options.

If in a place that is vulnerable to high wind, such as near large trees, a manufactured home, upper floors of a high-rise building, or on a boat, consider moving to a safer shelter before the onset of strong winds or flooding.

Closely monitor weather.gov, NOAA Weather radio or local news outlets for official storm information. Be ready to adapt to possible changes to the forecast. Ensure you have multiple ways to receive weather warnings.

* ADDITIONAL SOURCES OF INFORMATION: - For information on appropriate preparations see ready.gov - For additional disaster preparedness information see redcross.org

NEXT UPDATE -----------

The next local statement will be issued by the National Weather Service in Tallahassee FL around 12 PM EDT, or sooner if conditions warrant.