Tropical Cyclone Local Statement

HLSHFO

This product covers the Hawaiian islands

**LOWELL REMAINS A POWERFUL HURRICANE AS IT BEGINS TO TURN NORTHWARD**

NEW INFORMATION ---------------

* CHANGES TO WATCHES AND WARNINGS: - None

* CURRENT WATCHES AND WARNINGS: - A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for Kauai East, Kauai Mountains, Kauai North, Kauai South, Kauai Southwest, and Niihau

* STORM INFORMATION: - About 610 miles south-southwest of Lihue - 14.1N 163.5W - Storm Intensity 125 mph - Movement Northwest or 325 degrees at 5 mph

SITUATION OVERVIEW ------------------ At 11 pm HST, the eye of major Hurricane Lowell was located about 610 miles south-southwest of Lihue. Lowell has maximum sustained winds of 125 mph, and is now moving toward the northwest at 5 mph. Lowell is expected to continue to turn more toward the north or north-northeast tonight into Sunday, followed by an increase in forward speed Sunday into Monday. Some fluctuations in intensity are expected over the next couple of days, with gradual weakening expected Sunday into Monday. The eye of Lowell is currently forecast to make it's closest approach to the main Hawaiian Islands Monday night, passing 100 to 200 miles west of Niihau.

Strong, gusty winds on the eastern side of Lowell's circulation are expected to affect Kauai and Niihau as Hurricane Lowell passes. Winds will increase on Monday as the hurricane approaches the western end of the chain. Based on the current forecast, tropical storm force winds, sustained 39 mph or higher, will be possible later Monday. Plan to have your preparations for damaging winds complete by midday, with winds peaking Monday night. Even higher gusts, 60 mph or more, are possible over Kauai and Niihau where winds are accelerated by higher terrain.

Starting later Sunday, a very large shield of deep tropical moisture surrounding Lowell will spread northward over the main Hawaiian islands from south to north, bringing increasing showers. Squally downpours could lead to flash flooding, along with mudslides in steep terrain. Rainbands could become persistent and anchored in some areas, which would exacerbate the flash flood threat. The risk of flash flooding and mudslides is greatest for Kauai and Niihau, but also exists for other islands as well due to the extent of the moisture associated with Lowell. Up to a foot of rain is possible over portions of Kauai, mainly over the interior mountains.

Surf is expected to increase quickly on south and west facing shores Sunday night, reaching warning levels by Monday. Damaging surf and some coastal inundation are expected along the immediate coast on exposed south and west facing shores on Kauai and Niihau Monday and Monday night, before diminishing on Tuesday. Highest surf heights in those areas may reach 20 to 30 feet, along with 1 to 3 feet of coastal inundation.

Conditions will become favorable for fast-moving, short-lived waterspouts and tornadoes in the rainbands associated with Lowell, mainly near Kauai and Niihau, later on Monday. This threat will continue into Monday night, then diminish quickly Tuesday morning.

POTENTIAL IMPACTS -----------------

* WIND: Prepare for hazardous wind having possible limited impacts across Kauai and Niihau. Potential impacts in this area include: - Damage to porches, awnings, carports, sheds, and unanchored mobile homes. Unsecured lightweight objects blown about. - Many large tree limbs broken off. A few trees snapped or uprooted, but with greater numbers in places where trees are shallow rooted. Some fences and roadway signs blown over. - A few roads impassable from debris, particularly within urban or heavily wooded places. Hazardous driving conditions on bridges and other elevated roadways. - Scattered power and communications outages.

Elsewhere across the Hawaiian islands, little to no impact is anticipated.

* FLOODING RAIN: Prepare for life-threatening rainfall flooding having possible extensive impacts across Kauai and Niihau. Potential impacts include: - Major rainfall flooding may prompt many evacuations and rescues. - Rivers and tributaries may rapidly overflow their banks in multiple places. Small streams, creeks, canals, arroyos, and ditches may become dangerous rivers. In mountain areas, destructive runoff may run quickly down valleys while increasing susceptibility to rockslides and mudslides. Flood control systems and barriers may become stressed. - Flood waters can enter many structures within multiple communities, some structures becoming uninhabitable or washed away. Many places where flood waters may cover escape routes. Streets and parking lots become rivers of moving water with underpasses submerged. Driving conditions become dangerous. Many road and bridge closures with some weakened or washed out.

Prepare for dangerous rainfall flooding having possible significant impacts across the rest of the main Hawaiian Islands from Oahu to the Big Island.

* SURGE: Prepare for locally hazardous surge having possible limited impacts across Kauai and Niihau. Potential impacts in this area include: - Localized inundation with storm surge flooding mainly along immediate shorelines and in low-lying spots, or in areas farther inland near where higher surge waters move ashore. - Sections of near-shore roads and parking lots become overspread with surge water. Driving conditions dangerous in places where surge water covers the road. - Moderate beach erosion. Heavy surf also breaching dunes, mainly in usually vulnerable locations. Strong rip currents. - Minor to locally moderate damage to marinas, docks, boardwalks, and piers. A few small craft broken away from moorings.

Elsewhere across the Hawaiian islands, little to no impact is anticipated.

* TORNADOES: Prepare for a dangerous tornado event having possible significant impacts across Kauai and Niihau. Potential impacts include: - The occurrence of scattered tornadoes can hinder the execution of emergency plans during tropical events. - Several places may experience tornado damage with a few spots of considerable damage, power loss, and communications failures. - Locations could realize roofs torn off frame houses, mobile homes demolished, boxcars overturned, large trees snapped or uprooted, vehicles tumbled, and small boats tossed about. Dangerous projectiles can add to the toll.

Prepare for a tornado event having possible limited impacts across the rest of the main Hawaiian Islands from Oahu to the Big Island.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS ----------------------------------

* EVACUATIONS: Follow the advice of local officials.

* OTHER PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION: Now is the time to check your emergency plan and emergency supplies kit and take necessary actions to protect your family and secure your home or business.

When making safety and preparedness decisions, do not focus on the exact forecast track since hazards such as flooding rain, damaging wind gusts, storm surge, and tornadoes extend well away from the center of the storm.

Always heed the advice of local officials and comply with orders that are issued. Do not needlessly jeopardize your life or the lives of others.

When securing your property, outside preparations should be concluded as soon as possible before conditions deteriorate. The onset of strong gusty winds or flooding can cause certain preparedness activities to become unsafe.

Be sure to let friends and family members know of your intentions for weathering the storm and your whereabouts. Have someone located away from the threatened area serve as your point of contact. Share vital contact information with others. Keep cell phones handy and charged.

Check on those who may not be fully aware of the situation or who are unable to make personal preparations.

If you are a visitor, know the name of the county in which you are located and where it is relative to current watches and warnings. If staying at a hotel, ask the management staff about their onsite disaster plan. Listen for evacuation orders, especially pertaining to area visitors.

Closely monitor weather.gov, NOAA Weather Radio and local news outlets for official storm information. Listen for possible changes to the forecast.

There is a threat from tornadoes as Lowell passes by Kauai and Niihau. Have multiple ways to receive Tornado Warnings. Be ready to shelter quickly.

* ADDITIONAL SOURCES OF INFORMATION: - For information on appropriate preparations see ready.gov - For information on creating an emergency plan see getagameplan.org - For additional disaster preparedness information see redcross.org

NEXT UPDATE -----------

The next local statement will be issued by the National Weather Service in Honolulu HI around 5 AM HST, or sooner if conditions warrant.