Tropical Cyclone Local Statement

HLSMOB

This product covers portions of southwest Alabama...northwest Florida...south central Alabama...and inland southeast Mississippi.

**CONDITIONS DETERIORATING QUICKLY WITHIN THE STORM SURGE AND HURRICANE WARNING AREAS**

NEW INFORMATION ---------------

* CHANGES TO WATCHES AND WARNINGS: - None

* CURRENT WATCHES AND WARNINGS: - A Storm Surge Warning and Hurricane Warning are in effect for Baldwin Central, Baldwin Coastal, Escambia Coastal, Mobile Central, Mobile Coastal, Okaloosa Coastal, and Santa Rosa Coastal - A Hurricane Warning is in effect for Baldwin Inland, Conecuh, Covington, Escambia, Escambia Inland, Mobile Inland, Okaloosa Inland, and Santa Rosa Inland - A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Butler, Choctaw, Clarke, Crenshaw, George, Greene, Monroe, Perry, Stone, Washington, Wayne, and Wilcox

* STORM INFORMATION: - About 120 miles south-southeast of Mobile AL or about 90 miles south of Pensacola FL - 29.2N 87.0W - Storm Intensity 115 mph - Movement North or 10 degrees at 17 mph

SITUATION OVERVIEW ------------------

Major Hurricane Isaias continues to move towards the north near 17 mph and is forecast to make landfall along the coast of the western Florida panhandle this evening as a damaging hurricane. It is important not to focus just on the center as the wind field will expand by landfall, resulting in significant wind impacts and a life threatening storm surge along and to the east of where the hurricane makes landfall.

Peak storm surge inundation of 6 to 9 feet above normally dry ground is possible along the coast of the western Florida panhandle. Evacuation orders have been issued by some coastal counties and you should check with your local emergency management agency for the latest information. The time to evacuate is quickly closing as water levels will peak this evening.

Those in the hurricane warning need to prepare for damaging hurricane force winds of 74 to 110 mph, potentially stronger, especially across coastal Alabama and the western Florida Panhandle. The strongest winds will occur near and just to the east of the center. Potential impacts from these winds include numerous downed trees and power lines, significant power outages, and some roof damage. Tropical storm force winds will spread well inland with hurricane force gusts likely into south central Alabama as the center of Isaias quickly moves north.

Rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches are expected across southwest ALabama, south central Alabama, and the western Florida Panhandle. Localized amounts of 10 to 12 inches are possible in bands across the Florida Panhandle and near the center track of the storm. Areas of flooding are likely if the higher amounts are realized, with considerable impacts possible. In addition, there is an increasing risk for tornadoes as early as this afternoon and into tonight east of where the central Isaias tracks. The greatest threat will be across the western Florida Panhandle and south central Alabama.

POTENTIAL IMPACTS -----------------

* SURGE: Protect against life-threatening surge having possible extensive impacts across the coastal portions of the western Florida panhandle and Alabama. Potential impacts in this area include: - Large areas of deep inundation with storm surge flooding accentuated by battering waves. Structural damage to buildings, with several washing away. Damage compounded by floating debris. Locations may be uninhabitable for an extended period. - Large sections of near-shore escape routes and secondary roads washed out or severely flooded. Flood control systems and barriers may become stressed. - Severe beach erosion with significant dune loss. - Major damage to marinas, docks, boardwalks, and piers. Many small craft broken away from moorings, especially in unprotected anchorages with some lifted onshore and stranded.

Elsewhere across portions of southwest Alabama...south central Alabama...and inland southeast Mississippi, little to no impact is anticipated.

* WIND: Protect against life-threatening wind having possible devastating impacts across the western Florida Panhandle, portions of southwestern Alabama and portions of south central Alabama. Potential impacts in this area include: - Structural damage to sturdy buildings, some with complete roof and wall failures. Complete destruction of mobile homes. Damage greatly accentuated by large airborne projectiles. Locations may be uninhabitable for weeks or months. - Numerous large trees snapped or uprooted along with fences and roadway signs blown over. - Many roads impassable from large debris, and more within urban or heavily wooded places. - Widespread power and communications outages.

Also, protect against life-threatening wind having possible limited to extensive impacts across inland southeast Mississippi, far inland southwest Alabama, and inland south central Alabama.

* FLOODING RAIN: Protect against life-threatening rainfall flooding having possible extensive impacts across all of southwest and south central Alabama and the western Florida panhandle. Potential impacts include: - Major rainfall flooding may prompt many evacuations and rescues. - Rivers and tributaries may rapidly overflow their banks in multiple places. Small streams, creeks, canals, and ditches may become dangerous rivers. Flood control systems and barriers may become stressed. - Flood waters can enter many structures within multiple communities, some structures becoming uninhabitable or washed away. Many places where flood waters may cover escape routes. Streets and parking lots become rivers of moving water with underpasses submerged. Driving conditions become dangerous. Many road and bridge closures with some weakened or washed out.

Protect against dangerous rainfall flooding having possible limited to significant impacts across interior southeast Mississippi.

* TORNADOES: Protect against a dangerous tornado event having possible significant impacts across northwest Florida and south central Alabama. Potential impacts include: - The occurrence of scattered tornadoes can hinder the execution of emergency plans during tropical events. - Several places may experience tornado damage with a few spots of considerable damage, power loss, and communications failures. - Locations could realize roofs torn off frame houses, mobile homes demolished, boxcars overturned, large trees snapped or uprooted, vehicles tumbled, and small boats tossed about. Dangerous projectiles can add to the toll.

Protect against a tornado event having possible limited impacts across southwest Alabama.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS ----------------------------------

* EVACUATIONS: Follow the advice of local officials.

* OTHER PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION: Now is the time to stay inside and away from windows. Listen for updates and be ready in case you lose electrical power. Keep a battery-powered radio, charged cell phone and flashlight handy.

During the peak of the storm be ready to move quickly. Keep your shoes on and rain gear handy. Boots and athletic shoes offer the best foot protection if you become unexpectedly exposed to the weather.

If you are prone to flooding or in an area under a storm surge watch or warning, be prepared for the possibility of a quick and dramatic rise in water levels.

If a tornado warning is issued for your area, quickly move to the safest place within your shelter. Protect your head and body.

* ADDITIONAL SOURCES OF INFORMATION: - For the latest detailed evacuation and shelter information...please refer to your local emergency management agency at the phone number or website listed below. - Coastal Alabama: - Baldwin County: 251-972-6807 or www.baldwincountyal.gov/departments/EMA - Mobile County: 251-460-8000 or mobilecountyema.gov - Northwest Florida: - Escambia County: 850-471-6400 or myescambia.com/beready - Santa Rosa County: 850-983-5360 www.santarosa.fl.gov/emergency - Okaloosa County: 850-651-7150 or myokaloosa.com/emergency-management - For information on appropriate preparations see ready.gov - For additional disaster preparedness information see redcross.org

NEXT UPDATE -----------

The next local statement will be issued by the National Weather Service in Mobile AL around 7 PM CDT, or sooner if conditions warrant.