Tropical Cyclone Local Statement

HLSHFO

This product covers the Hawaiian islands

**TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON KAUAI AND NIIHAU BY LATE MONDAY**

NEW INFORMATION ---------------

* CHANGES TO WATCHES AND WARNINGS: - None

* CURRENT WATCHES AND WARNINGS: - A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Kauai East, Kauai Mountains, Kauai North, Kauai South, Kauai Southwest, and Niihau

* STORM INFORMATION: - About 550 miles south-southwest of Lihue - 15.2N 163.7W - Storm Intensity 120 mph - Movement North or 350 degrees at 6 mph

SITUATION OVERVIEW ------------------

At 11 am HST, the eye of major Hurricane Lowell was located about 550 miles south-southwest of Kauai. Lowell has maximum sustained winds of 120 mph, and is now moving toward the north at 6 mph. Lowell is expected to turn more toward the north- northeast tonight through Tuesday while accelerating. Some fluctuations in intensity are expected in the short term, with gradual weakening expected tonight into Monday. The eye of Lowell is currently forecast to make it's closest approach to the main Hawaiian Islands Monday night, passing 90 to 150 miles west of Niihau. Lowell is expected to remain a hurricane while passing near Hawaii.

Strong, gusty winds on the eastern side of Lowell's circulation are expected to affect Kauai and Niihau as Hurricane Lowell passes. Winds will increase on Monday as the hurricane approaches the western end of the chain. Based on the current forecast, tropical storm force winds, sustained 39 mph or higher, are expected Monday afternoon. Plan to have your preparations for damaging winds complete by midday, with winds peaking Monday night. Even higher gusts, 60 mph or more, are possible over Kauai and Niihau where winds are accelerated by terrain.

Starting later today, a very large shield of deep tropical moisture surrounding Lowell will spread northward over the main Hawaiian islands from south to north, bringing increasing showers. Squally downpours could lead to flash flooding, along with mudslides in steep terrain. Rainbands could become persistent and anchored in some areas, which would exacerbate the flash flood threat. The risk of flash flooding and mudslides is greatest for Kauai and Niihau, but also exists for other islands as well due to the extent of the moisture associated with Lowell. Over a foot of rain is possible over portions of Kauai, mainly over the interior mountains.

Surf is expected to increase quickly on south and west facing shores tonight, reaching warning levels by Monday. Damaging surf and some coastal inundation are expected along the immediate coast on exposed south and west facing shores on Kauai and Niihau Monday and Monday night, before diminishing on Tuesday. Highest surf heights in those areas may reach 20 to 30 feet, along with 1 to 3 feet of coastal inundation.

Conditions will become favorable for fast-moving, short-lived waterspouts and tornadoes in the rainbands associated with Lowell, mainly near Kauai and Niihau, Monday afternoon. This threat will continue into Monday night, then diminish quickly Tuesday morning.

POTENTIAL IMPACTS -----------------

* WIND: Protect against dangerous wind having possible significant impacts across Kauai and Niihau. Potential impacts in this area include: - Some damage to roofing and siding materials, along with damage to porches, awnings, carports, and sheds. A few buildings experiencing window, door, and garage door failures. Mobile homes damaged, especially if unanchored. Unsecured lightweight objects become dangerous projectiles. - Several large trees snapped or uprooted, but with greater numbers in places where trees are shallow rooted. Several fences and roadway signs blown over. - Some roads impassable from large debris, and more within urban or heavily wooded places. A few bridges, causeways, and access routes impassable. - Scattered power and communications outages, but more prevalent in areas with above ground lines.

Elsewhere across the Hawaiian islands, little to no impact is anticipated.

* FLOODING RAIN: Protect against life-threatening rainfall flooding having possible extensive impacts across Kauai and Niihau. Potential impacts include: - Major rainfall flooding may prompt many evacuations and rescues. - Rivers and tributaries may rapidly overflow their banks in multiple places. Small streams, creeks, canals, arroyos, and ditches may become dangerous rivers. In mountain areas, destructive runoff may run quickly down valleys while increasing susceptibility to rockslides and mudslides. Flood control systems and barriers may become stressed. - Flood waters can enter many structures within multiple communities, some structures becoming uninhabitable or washed away. Many places where flood waters may cover escape routes. Streets and parking lots become rivers of moving water with underpasses submerged. Driving conditions become dangerous. Many road and bridge closures with some weakened or washed out.

Protect against dangerous rainfall flooding having possible significant impacts across the rest of the main Hawaiian Islands from Oahu to the Big Island.

* SURGE: Protect against locally hazardous surge having possible limited impacts across Kauai and Niihau. Potential impacts in this area include: - Localized inundation with storm surge flooding mainly along immediate shorelines and in low-lying spots, or in areas farther inland near where higher surge waters move ashore. - Sections of near-shore roads and parking lots become overspread with surge water. Driving conditions dangerous in places where surge water covers the road. - Moderate beach erosion. Heavy surf also breaching dunes, mainly in usually vulnerable locations. Strong rip currents. - Minor to locally moderate damage to marinas, docks, boardwalks, and piers. A few small craft broken away from moorings.

Elsewhere across the Hawaiian islands, little to no impact is anticipated.

* TORNADOES: Protect against a dangerous tornado event having possible significant impacts across Niihau and Kauai. Potential impacts include: - The occurrence of scattered tornadoes can hinder the execution of emergency plans during tropical events. - Several places may experience tornado damage with a few spots of considerable damage, power loss, and communications failures. - Locations could realize roofs torn off frame houses, mobile homes demolished, boxcars overturned, large trees snapped or uprooted, vehicles tumbled, and small boats tossed about. Dangerous projectiles can add to the toll.

Protect against a tornado event having possible limited impacts across the rest of the main Hawaiian Islands from Oahu to the Big Island.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS ----------------------------------

* EVACUATIONS: Follow the advice of local officials

* OTHER PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION: Now is the time to complete all preparations to protect life and property in accordance with your emergency plan. Ensure you are in a safe location before the onset of strong winds or possible flooding.

If you are relocating to safe shelter, leave as early as possible. Allow extra time to reach your destination. Many roads and bridges will be closed once strong winds arrive. Check the latest weather forecast before departing and drive with caution.

If heading to a community shelter, become familiar with the shelter rules before arrival, especially if you have special needs or have pets. Take essential items with you from your Emergency Supplies Kit.

Failure to adequately shelter may result in serious injury or loss of life. Always heed the advice of local officials and comply with any orders that are issued. Remember, during the storm 9 1 1 Emergency Services may not be able to immediately respond if conditions are unsafe. This should be a big factor in your decision making.

Keep cell phones well charged. Cell phone chargers for automobiles can be helpful, but be aware of your risk for deadly carbon monoxide poisoning if your car is left idling in a garage or other poorly ventilated area.

It is important to remain calm, informed, and focused during an emergency. Be patient and helpful with those you encounter.

If you are a visitor, be sure to know the name of the city or town in which you are staying and the name of the county or parish in which it resides. Listen for these locations in local news updates. Pay attention for instructions from local authorities.

Storm surge is the leading killer associated with tropical storms and hurricanes! Make sure you are in a safe area away from the surge zone. Even if you are not in a surge-prone area, you could find yourself cutoff by flood waters during and after the storm. Heed evacuation orders issued by the local authorities.

Rapidly rising flood waters are deadly. If you are in a flood-prone area, consider moving to higher ground. Never drive through a flooded roadway. Remember, turn around don't drown!

If a Tornado Warning is issued for your area, be ready to shelter quickly, preferably away from windows and in an interior room not prone to flooding. If driving, scan the roadside for quick shelter options.

If in a place that is vulnerable to high wind, such as near large trees, a manufactured home, upper floors of a high-rise building, or on a boat, consider moving to a safer shelter before the onset of strong winds or flooding.

Closely monitor weather.gov, NOAA Weather radio or local news outlets for official storm information. Be ready to adapt to possible changes to the forecast. Ensure you have multiple ways to receive weather warnings.

* ADDITIONAL SOURCES OF INFORMATION: - For information on appropriate preparations see ready.gov - For information on creating an emergency plan see getagameplan.org - For additional disaster preparedness information see redcross.org

NEXT UPDATE -----------

The next local statement will be issued by the National Weather Service in Honolulu HI around 5 PM HST, or sooner if conditions warrant.