Tropical Cyclone Local Statement

HLSHFO

This product covers the Hawaiian islands

**NOLO CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MOVE NORTHWARD TOWARDS THE BIG ISLAND**

NEW INFORMATION ---------------

* CHANGES TO WATCHES AND WARNINGS: - None

* CURRENT WATCHES AND WARNINGS: - A Hurricane Watch is in effect for Big Island East, Big Island Interior, Big Island North, Big Island South, Big Island Southeast, Big Island Summits, Kohala, and Kona

* STORM INFORMATION: - About 480 miles south-southeast of Honolulu or about 350 miles south of Hilo - 14.7N 155.9W - Storm Intensity 45 mph - Movement West-northwest or 285 degrees at 6 mph

SITUATION OVERVIEW ------------------

Tropical Storm Nolo has strengthened some as it continues its northward track towards the islands. Nolo is expected to make a turn to the west Friday night, passing south of the Big Island Saturday.

Little change with the expected onset of conditions with this package, with damaging tropical storm force winds reaching the Big Island as early as Friday morning, and dangerous hurricane force winds possible by Friday night. Hurricane or tropical storm watches may be needed for other islands should Nolo move closer to the islands.

Bands of intense showers and thunderstorms associated with Nolo will reach the Big Island as early as Thursday. Excessive rainfall is possible which could lead to locally catastrophic flash flooding, landslides and mudslides. Flooding can occur even in areas not usually prone to flooding. Outer rain band associated with Nolo are expected to reach the smaller islands, and will be enhanced by the terrain, particularly on Maui. Storm total rainfall amounts greater than 20 inches are possible on the Big Island, with localized amounts of 35 inches. On Maui, rainfall amounts greater than 10 inches are possible, with localized amounts of 20 inches are possible.

Swell generated by Nolo could bring very large and rough surf and dangerous rip currents for south and southeast facing shores.

Tornadoes and large waterspouts will be possible associated with Nolo, mainly over and near the Big Island, along and to the right of the track of the hurricane.

POTENTIAL IMPACTS -----------------

* FLOODING RAIN: Prepare for life-threatening rainfall flooding having possible devastating impacts across the Big Island. Potential impacts include: - Extreme rainfall flooding may prompt numerous evacuations and rescues. - Rivers and tributaries may overwhelmingly overflow their banks in many places with deep moving water. Small streams, creeks, canals, arroyos, and ditches may become raging rivers. In mountain areas, deadly runoff may rage down valleys while increasing susceptibility to rockslides and mudslides. Flood control systems and barriers may become stressed. - Flood waters can enter numerous structures within multiple communities, some structures becoming uninhabitable or washed away. Numerous places where flood waters may cover escape routes. Streets and parking lots become rivers of raging water with underpasses submerged. Driving conditions become very dangerous. Numerous road and bridge closures with some weakened or washed out.

Prepare for life-threatening rainfall flooding having possible limited to extensive impacts across Maui County.

* WIND: Prepare for life-threatening wind having possible extensive impacts across the Big Island. Potential impacts in this area include: - Considerable roof damage to sturdy buildings, with some having window, door, and garage door failures leading to structural damage. Mobile homes severely damaged, with some destroyed. Damage accentuated by airborne projectiles. Locations may be uninhabitable for weeks. - Many large trees snapped or uprooted along with fences and roadway signs blown over. - Some roads impassable from large debris, and more within urban or heavily wooded places. Several bridges, causeways, and access routes impassable. - Large areas with power and communications outages.

Also, prepare for dangerous wind having possible limited to significant impacts across Maui County.

* SURGE: Prepare for locally hazardous surge having possible limited impacts across the Big Island. Potential impacts in this area include: - Localized inundation with storm surge flooding mainly along immediate shorelines and in low-lying spots, or in areas farther inland near where higher surge waters move ashore. - Sections of near-shore roads and parking lots become overspread with surge water. Driving conditions dangerous in places where surge water covers the road. - Moderate beach erosion. Heavy surf also breaching dunes, mainly in usually vulnerable locations. Strong rip currents. - Minor to locally moderate damage to marinas, docks, boardwalks, and piers. A few small craft broken away from moorings.

Elsewhere across the Hawaiian islands, little to no impact is anticipated.

* TORNADOES: Prepare for a tornado event having possible limited impacts across the Big Island. Potential impacts include: - The occurrence of isolated tornadoes can hinder the execution of emergency plans during tropical events. - A few places may experience tornado damage, along with power and communications disruptions. - Locations could realize roofs peeled off buildings, chimneys toppled, mobile homes pushed off foundations or overturned, large tree tops and branches snapped off, shallow-rooted trees knocked over, moving vehicles blown off roads, and small boats pulled from moorings.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS ----------------------------------

* EVACUATIONS: Follow the advice of local officials.

* OTHER PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION: Now is the time to check your emergency plan and emergency supplies kit and take necessary actions to protect your family and secure your home or business.

When making safety and preparedness decisions, do not focus on the exact forecast track since hazards such as flooding rain, damaging wind gusts, storm surge, and tornadoes extend well away from the center of the storm.

If in a place that is vulnerable to high wind, such as near large trees, a manufactured home, upper floors of a high-rise building, or on a boat, plan to move to safe shelter.

If you live in a place particularly vulnerable to flooding, such as near the ocean or a large inland lake, in a low-lying or poor drainage area, in a valley, or near an already swollen river, plan to move to safe shelter on higher ground.

Always heed the advice of local officials and comply with orders that are issued. Do not needlessly jeopardize your life or the lives of others.

When securing your property, outside preparations should be concluded as soon as possible before conditions deteriorate. The onset of strong gusty winds or flooding can cause certain preparedness activities to become unsafe.

Be sure to let friends and family members know of your intentions for weathering the storm and your whereabouts. Have someone located away from the threatened area serve as your point of contact. Share vital contact information with others. Keep cell phones handy and charged.

Check on those who may not be fully aware of the situation or who are unable to make personal preparations.

If you are a visitor, know the name of the county or parish in which you are located and where it is relative to current watches and warnings. If staying at a hotel, ask the management staff about their onsite disaster plan. Listen for evacuation orders, especially pertaining to area visitors.

Closely monitor weather.gov, NOAA Weather Radio and local news outlets for official storm information. Listen for possible changes to the forecast.

There is a threat from tornadoes with this storm. Have multiple ways to receive Tornado Warnings. Be ready to shelter quickly.

* ADDITIONAL SOURCES OF INFORMATION: - For information on appropriate preparations see ready.gov - For information on creating an emergency plan see getagameplan.org - For additional disaster preparedness information see redcross.org

NEXT UPDATE -----------

The next local statement will be issued by the National Weather Service in Honolulu HI around 11 PM HST, or sooner if conditions warrant.