Special Weather Statement

An intensifying monsoon surge along the southern peripheries of a developing trough axis stretching from TS Saudel westward, is expected to enhance a secondary embedded monsoon disturbance that will bring intensely heavy showers and persistently fresh to strong westerlies to much of western Micronesia the next several days. Intense showers and thunderstorms are expected to peak at Yap tonight and Friday, to then taper down slowly thereafter. Meanwhile at Palau, the aforementioned secondary disturbance will develop quickly, to bring peak shower and thunder potentials to Friday and Friday night, which may drag into the weekend.

Current rainfall estimates indicate 5 to 8 inches of rainfall in the general vicinity of Palau over the next 48 hours, with slightly lower amounts expected near Yap. Even so, these rainfall totals remain highly uncertain due to the generally unsettled weather pattern in the area, that may produce periods of drier and significantly wetter spells over the coming days.

This pattern is not likely to taper down significantly until early next week as a distant TS Saudel continues to pivot toward the far northern Marianas. As such, the general public must continue to monitor the forecast for any potential changes and/or developments over the next several days.