Tropical Cyclone Local Statement

HLSHFO

This product covers the Hawaiian islands

**Nolo moving slowly northward and strengthening**

NEW INFORMATION ---------------

* CHANGES TO WATCHES AND WARNINGS: - None

* CURRENT WATCHES AND WARNINGS: - A Tropical Storm Warning and Hurricane Watch are in effect for Big Island East, Big Island Interior, Big Island North, Big Island South, Big Island Southeast, Big Island Summits, Kohala, and Kona - A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for Haleakala Summit, Kahoolawe, Kipahulu, Lanai Leeward, Lanai Mauka, Lanai South, Lanai Windward, Maui Central Valley North, Maui Central Valley South, Maui Leeward West, Maui Windward West, Molokai Leeward South, Molokai North, Molokai Southeast, Molokai West, Molokai Windward, South Haleakala, South Maui/Upcountry, and Windward Haleakala

* STORM INFORMATION: - About 400 miles south-southeast of Honolulu or about 260 miles south of Hilo - 16.0N 155.5W - Storm Intensity 85 mph - Movement North-northeast or 25 degrees at 5 mph

SITUATION OVERVIEW ------------------

Hurricane Nolo is moving slowly northward and will continue to do so through today. Nolo is then forecast to make a sharp turn to the west late tonight into Saturday as it strengthens to a major hurricane. Nolo is forecast to continue westward through the weekend with the center passing south of the state. However, impacts from Nolo will be felt well outside the center of the storm.

Bands of intense showers and thunderstorms associated with Nolo will reach the Big Island and Maui County over the next couple of days. Excessive rainfall is possible which could lead to locally catastrophic flash flooding and mudslides across windward and southeast Big Island. Flooding can occur even in areas not usually prone to flooding. Additional rainfall amounts of 10 to 15 inches wit localized higher amounts of 20 inches. On Maui, additional rainfall amounts of 4 to 8 inches are possible, with localized higher amounts. Outer rain bands associated with Nolo are expected to reach the other smaller islands, and will be enhanced by the terrain.

Tropical storm force winds are expected to reach the Big Island as early as midday today, with hurricane force winds possible by tonight. The earliest reasonable time of arrival for tropical storm force winds is predawn Saturday for Maui County. A Tropical Storm Warning and Hurricane Watch is in effect for Big Island, and a Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for the islands of Maui County. Nolo remains under close observation in the event additional islands may need watches and warnings.

Swell generated by Nolo could bring very large and rough surf and dangerous rip currents for south and southeast facing shores, especially for the Big Island. A High Surf Advisory remains in effect for south and east facing shores of Big Island and east facing shores of Maui and Molokai. Surf is expected to build to advisory levels along all south and east facing shores and will likely be added to the advisory in future updates as Nolo nears.

Tornadoes and large waterspouts will be possible associated with Nolo, mainly over and near the Big Island, along and to the right of the track of the tropical cyclone.

POTENTIAL IMPACTS -----------------

* FLOODING RAIN: Protect against life-threatening rainfall flooding having possible devastating impacts across Big Island. Potential impacts include: - Extreme rainfall flooding may prompt numerous evacuations and rescues. - Rivers and tributaries may overwhelmingly overflow their banks in many places with deep moving water. Small streams, creeks, canals, arroyos, and ditches may become raging rivers. In mountain areas, deadly runoff may rage down valleys while increasing susceptibility to rockslides and mudslides. Flood control systems and barriers may become stressed. - Flood waters can enter numerous structures within multiple communities, some structures becoming uninhabitable or washed away. Numerous places where flood waters may cover escape routes. Streets and parking lots become rivers of raging water with underpasses submerged. Driving conditions become very dangerous. Numerous road and bridge closures with some weakened or washed out.

Protect against life-threatening rainfall flooding having possible limited to extensive impacts across Maui.

Elsewhere across the Hawaiian islands, little to no impact is anticipated.

* WIND: Protect against dangerous wind having possible significant impacts across Big Island. Potential impacts in this area include: - Some damage to roofing and siding materials, along with damage to porches, awnings, carports, and sheds. A few buildings experiencing window, door, and garage door failures. Mobile homes damaged, especially if unanchored. Unsecured lightweight objects become dangerous projectiles. - Several large trees snapped or uprooted, but with greater numbers in places where trees are shallow rooted. Several fences and roadway signs blown over. - Some roads impassable from large debris, and more within urban or heavily wooded places. A few bridges, causeways, and access routes impassable. - Scattered power and communications outages, but more prevalent in areas with above ground lines.

Also, protect against hazardous wind having possible limited impacts across Maui.

* SURGE: Protect against locally hazardous surge having possible limited impacts across Big Island. Potential impacts in this area include: - Localized inundation with storm surge flooding mainly along immediate shorelines and in low-lying spots, or in areas farther inland near where higher surge waters move ashore. - Sections of near-shore roads and parking lots become overspread with surge water. Driving conditions dangerous in places where surge water covers the road. - Moderate beach erosion. Heavy surf also breaching dunes, mainly in usually vulnerable locations. Strong rip currents. - Minor to locally moderate damage to marinas, docks, boardwalks, and piers. A few small craft broken away from moorings.

Elsewhere across the Hawaiian islands, little to no impact is anticipated.

* TORNADOES: Protect against a tornado event having possible limited impacts across Big Island. Potential impacts include: - The occurrence of isolated tornadoes can hinder the execution of emergency plans during tropical events. - A few places may experience tornado damage, along with power and communications disruptions. - Locations could realize roofs peeled off buildings, chimneys toppled, mobile homes pushed off foundations or overturned, large tree tops and branches snapped off, shallow-rooted trees knocked over, moving vehicles blown off roads, and small boats pulled from moorings.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS ----------------------------------

* EVACUATIONS: Follow the advice of local officials

* OTHER PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION: Now is the time to complete all preparations to protect life and property in accordance with your emergency plan. Ensure you are in a safe location before the onset of strong winds or possible flooding.

If you are relocating to safe shelter, leave as early as possible. Allow extra time to reach your destination. Many roads and bridges will be closed once strong winds arrive. Check the latest weather forecast before departing and drive with caution.

If heading to a community shelter, become familiar with the shelter rules before arrival, especially if you have special needs or have pets. Take essential items with you from your Emergency Supplies Kit.

Failure to adequately shelter may result in serious injury or loss of life. Always heed the advice of local officials and comply with any orders that are issued. Remember, during the storm 9 1 1 Emergency Services may not be able to immediately respond if conditions are unsafe. This should be a big factor in your decision making.

Keep cell phones well charged. Cell phone chargers for automobiles can be helpful, but be aware of your risk for deadly carbon monoxide poisoning if your car is left idling in a garage or other poorly ventilated area.

It is important to remain calm, informed, and focused during an emergency. Be patient and helpful with those you encounter.

If you are a visitor, be sure to know the name of the city or town in which you are staying and the name of the county or parish in which it resides. Listen for these locations in local news updates. Pay attention for instructions from local authorities.

Storm surge is the leading killer associated with tropical storms and hurricanes! Make sure you are in a safe area away from the surge zone. Even if you are not in a surge-prone area, you could find yourself cutoff by flood waters during and after the storm. Heed evacuation orders issued by the local authorities.

Rapidly rising flood waters are deadly. If you are in a flood-prone area, consider moving to higher ground. Never drive through a flooded roadway. Remember, turn around don't drown!

If a Tornado Warning is issued for your area, be ready to shelter quickly, preferably away from windows and in an interior room not prone to flooding. If driving, scan the roadside for quick shelter options.

If in a place that is vulnerable to high wind, such as near large trees, a manufactured home, upper floors of a high-rise building, or on a boat, consider moving to a safer shelter before the onset of strong winds or flooding.

Closely monitor weather.gov, NOAA Weather radio or local news outlets for official storm information. Be ready to adapt to possible changes to the forecast. Ensure you have multiple ways to receive weather warnings.

* ADDITIONAL SOURCES OF INFORMATION: - For information on appropriate preparations see ready.gov - For information on creating an emergency plan see getagameplan.org - For additional disaster preparedness information see redcross.org

NEXT UPDATE -----------

The next local statement will be issued by the National Weather Service in Honolulu HI around 11 AM HST, or sooner if conditions warrant.