Tropical Cyclone Local Statement

...VERY DANGEROUS CATEGORY 5 SUPER TYPHOON BAVI CONTINUES TO MOVE WEST-SOUTHWEST TOWARD THE MARIANAS... ...BAVI EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH THE SOUTHERN MARIANAS AS A SUPER TYPHOON MONDAY MORNING...

.NEW INFORMATION... A Typhoon Warning has now been issued.

.AREAS AFFECTED... This local statement provides important information and recommended actions for people in Guam and the Northern Marianas.

.WATCHES/WARNINGS... A Typhoon Warning is now in effect for Guam, Rota, Tinian, and Saipan.

Typhoon force winds of 74 mph or more are expected, with the onset of damaging winds expected within 24 to 48 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch continues for Alamagan, Pagan and Agrihan.

A Flood Watch is in effect for all of Guam and the Northern Marianas. Please listen closely for any Flood Warnings that might be in effect for your area.

Please check the latest public and marine forecasts for detailed information about additional hazards.

.STORM INFORMATION... At 1 PM ChST, the center of Super Typhoon Bavi (09W) was located near latitude 12.5N, longitude 151.2E. This was about 435 miles east of Guam. Storm motion was west-southwest, 255 degrees, at 8 mph. Storm intensity was 160 mph.

.SITUATION OVERVIEW... A Typhoon Warning has now been issued. Super Typhoon Bavi (09W) is expected to make passage through the southern Marianas beginning Monday morning at Category 5 strength. It is expected to make a turn toward the west-northwest and gradually increase in forward speed through Sunday, when tropical storm force conditions will begin to be felt across the islands. The onset of tropical storm force conditions is currently expected late Sunday afternoon or Sunday evening. The latest forecast track still maintains passage somewhere near or to the north of Rota Island, but there is time for the track to shift north or south. All islands will experience impacts. At minimum, damaging tropical storm force conditions are expected, but damage will be catastrophic near the center of Super Typhoon Bavi, with maximum sustained winds forecast at 160 mph at time of passage. Significant flooding from torrential rains, and coastal inundation are expected. Surf will become extremely dangerous ahead of Bavi's approach, potentially reaching 30 feet Monday. Significant coastal inundation and erosion are expected, with inundation of 10 to 15 feet possible.

For the islands closest to passage of Super Typhoon Bavi, the onset of typhoon conditions is expected early Monday morning just ahead of Bavi's center, continuing through Monday afternoon. The latest forecast from the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) suggests that destructive typhoon conditions may be expected for 8 to 10 hours close to the center's passage, which will depend on Bavi's forward speed.