Special Weather Statement

Tropical Storm Bavi (09W) is currently organizing to the north of Pohnpei near 11.9N 158.5E, or roughly 930 miles east of Guam, 885 miles east-southeast of Saipan. TS Bavi is moving west-northwest at 15 mph. Satellite imagery depicts a very broad, strengthening storm with deep convection becoming well-consolidated around the center. Maximum sustained winds are 60 mph, and the latest forecast from the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) shows TS Bavi strengthening to a typhoon within 24 hours, with maximum sustained winds increasing to 90 mph.

Bavi is forecast to continue strengthening over the next few days as it moves west-northwest toward the Marianas, potentially arriving to the islands as a strong Category 4, or even Category 5 typhoon, with forecasted maximum sustained winds of 155 mph. Model guidance continues to support an eventual track somewhere between Rota and Tinian, but certainty on the exact path through the Marianas remains low. Bavi could potentially pass anywhere from south of Guam to north of Anatahan in the northern CNMI, and there will be adjustments to the forecast track, and timing, in the coming days. Tropical Storm Bavi may arrive to the Marianas sometime around late Sunday through Monday, but be prepared for changes in the expected time of arrival if Bavi speeds up, or slows down.

Based on the current forecast, conditions may start to deteriorate across the Marianas sometime late Saturday or early Sunday as Bavi starts to close in. The Marianas should make preparations for the potential for tropical storm or typhoon-force winds, with the current forecast suggesting tropical storm conditions may begin sometime on Sunday.

Widespread heavy rainfall is likely to accompany Tropical Storm Bavi during its passage through the Marianas. Rainfall totals from island to island will greatly depend on the eventual storm track, but current model ensemble guidance supports a range of rainfall totals from 6 to 11 inches across the Marianas. Locally higher amounts will be possible, and current guidance suggests rainfall totals could approach 15 inches closer to the center. There is still plenty of uncertainty in forecasted rainfall totals with Bavi still around 72 hours out, but prepare for the likelihood of heavy rainfall capable of producing localized flooding.

Seas will build prior to and during Bavi's passage. Seas are currently forecast to increase to between 25 to 35 feet over Marianas coastal waters during Bavi's passage, possibly approaching 40 feet near Bavi's center.

Prepare for the potential of significant coastal inundation with a strong typhoon passage through the Marianas. Surf may begin to exceed 20 feet as Bavi arrives, with inundation heights potentially exceeding 7 feet over wider reefs.

For more information on Tropical Storm Bavi, please refer to the Tropical Cyclone Public Advisory issued by the National Weather Service under WMO header WTPQ31 PGUM and the Tropical Cyclone Warning issued by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center under WMO header WTPN31 PGTW.