Hydrologic Outlook

ESFAFC

Locations:

* Yentna and Skwentna River basins

* Rivers, creeks, and streams with headwaters along the western Talkeetna Mountains.

Timing:

* First Round - Late Monday Night through Wednesday Morning

* Second Round - Late Thursday Night through Saturday Evening

Rainfall:

* Widespread rainfall of 0.5 to 1.5 inches of rain is likely (70-80%) across the Susitna Valley late Monday Night through Wednesday morning. The highest amounts are very likely (80%-90%) to occur from Petersville east to Talkeetna and along the Talkeetna Mountains to Hatcher Pass.

* Additional widespread rainfall of 0.5 to 1.5 inches of rain is likely (60-70%) across the Susitna Valley late Thursday Night through Saturday evening. There is a low chance (20-30%) for rainfall amounts higher than 1.5" across far northern and western Susitna Valley.

* There is a chance (20-30%) of an additional 0.1 to 0.2 inches of rain with any lingering scattered showers Wednesday afternoon and evening.

Hydrologic Concerns:

* Expect sharp rises on many small streams and rivers, including the Yentna at Lake Creek.

* Many lower locations along rivers such as gravel bars and other spots popular for camping and recreating may become inundated with water with rivers reaching bankfull conditions.

* Heavy rain may result in localized ponding in low-lying areas and locations with poor drainage.

Next Steps:

* Residents along area streams as well as river users and recreators should anticipate higher than normal water levels and are advised to monitor weather and river forecasts.

* Send weather or flooding reports to inws.ncep.noaa.gov/report/ or by calling 1-907-266-5127.

* Reports on river conditions may be sent to the river forecast center by calling 1-907-266-5160.