Tropical Cyclone Local Statement

HLSTAE

This product covers eastern Florida panhandle, Florida Big Bend, southeastern Alabama and southwestern Georgia.

**HURRICANE HUNTERS FIND THAT ISAIAS NOW HAS 100 MPH WINDS**

NEW INFORMATION ---------------

* CHANGES TO WATCHES AND WARNINGS: - The Tropical Storm Warning and Hurricane Watch have been upgraded to a Hurricane Warning for Central Walton and North Walton

* CURRENT WATCHES AND WARNINGS: - A Hurricane Warning is in effect for Central Walton and North Walton - A Storm Surge Warning and Hurricane Warning are in effect for Coastal Bay and South Walton - A Storm Surge Warning and Tropical Storm Warning are in effect for Coastal Franklin, Coastal Gulf, Coastal Jefferson, and Coastal Wakulla - A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for Coastal Dixie and Coastal Taylor - A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Calhoun, Clay, Coffee, Dale, Decatur, Early, Gadsden, Geneva, Henry, Holmes, Houston, Inland Bay, Inland Franklin, Inland Gulf, Inland Wakulla, Jackson, Leon, Miller, Northern Liberty, Seminole, Southern Liberty, and Washington - A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for Baker, Calhoun, Colquitt, Dougherty, Grady, Inland Jefferson, Lee, Mitchell, Quitman, Randolph, Terrell, Thomas, and Worth

* STORM INFORMATION: - About 450 miles south-southwest of Panama City or about 450 miles southwest of Apalachicola - 24.4N 89.3W - Storm Intensity 100 mph - Movement Northeast or 50 degrees at 12 mph

SITUATION OVERVIEW ------------------

...INLAND WALTON COUNTY UPGRADED TO HURRICANE WARNING... ...CONSIDERABLE FLOODING RAIN THREAT EXPECTED FOR FLORIDA PANHANDLE...

At 5 PM ET, Hurricane Isaias was located in the southern Gulf with maximum sustained winds of 100 mph and moving NE at 12 mph. There are overall no significant changes in the forecast reasoning from the previous advisory. Isaias is forecast to turn northward in the next day or so and accelerate in forward speed towards the central Gulf coast. Additional strengthening is anticipated through tonight, and may be near major hurricane strength prior to landfall. The wind field is expected to expand considerably and may be lopsided towards the east, which means impacts are likely well beyond the forecast cone, particularly east of the hurricane's center.

Conditions could begin to deteriorate across the Florida Panhandle as early as Friday morning. Therefore, residents are urged to finalize their preparations today and early tomorrow.

Given the expected large size of Isaias as it nears northern Gulf coast, the wind threat may extend well into the eastern portions of the Tri-state area. An expected fast forward speed may also lead to the wind threat extending further inland, especially near the core of the storm. A Storm Surge Warning remains in effect from the all of our Panhandle and Big Bend coast. Life-threatening inundation values of 5 to 7 feet above normally dry ground are forecast across the coastal Panhandle to Indian Pass, 4 to 6 feet from Indian Pass to the Steinhatchee River, and 3 to 5 feet from the Steinhatchee River to Suwannee River, coincident with the high tide. The greatest surge risk will be Friday into Saturday.

Soggy conditions across the region from recent rainfall will make much of the Tri-state area more sensitive to flooding from additional heavy rainfall from Isaias. Forecast rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches is expected across much of the area. Localized totals up to 15 inches are possible, especially within banding across the Florida Panhandle and Big Bend. If realized, these values are likely to produce isolated to scattered flash flooding and some river flooding. Localized considerable flash flooding is also possible where bands of heavy rain move repeatedly over the same area. Given these factors, a Flood Watch was issued for counties along and west of the I-75 corridor, the FL Big Bend, and eastern FL Big Bend from Friday afternoon through Saturday evening. Isaias will also bring an moderate chance for several tornadoes across the Florida Panhandle and western FL Big Bend on Friday into Saturday and Southeast AL & Southwest GA late Friday into Saturday.

POTENTIAL IMPACTS -----------------

* FLOODING RAIN: Protect against life-threatening rainfall flooding having possible extensive impacts across the area, especially over the Florida Panhandle and Big Bend. Potential impacts include: - Major rainfall flooding may prompt many evacuations and rescues. - Rivers and tributaries may rapidly overflow their banks in multiple places. Small streams, creeks, and ditches may become dangerous rivers. Flood control systems and barriers may become stressed. - Flood waters can enter many structures within multiple communities, some structures becoming uninhabitable or washed away. Many places where flood waters may cover escape routes. Streets and parking lots become rivers of moving water with underpasses submerged. Driving conditions become dangerous. Many road and bridge closures with some weakened or washed out.

Protect against dangerous rainfall flooding having possible significant impacts across elsewhere across the area.

* SURGE: Protect against life-threatening surge having possible extensive impacts across the coastal Florida Panhandle and Big Bend. Potential impacts in this area include: - Large areas of deep inundation with storm surge flooding accentuated by battering waves. Structural damage to buildings, with several washing away. Damage compounded by floating debris. Locations may be uninhabitable for an extended period. - Large sections of near-shore escape routes and secondary roads washed out or severely flooded. Flood control systems and barriers may become stressed. - Severe beach erosion with significant dune loss. - Major damage to marinas, docks, boardwalks, and piers. Many small craft broken away from moorings, especially in unprotected anchorages with some lifted onshore and stranded.

Elsewhere across eastern Florida panhandle, Florida Big Bend, southeastern Alabama and southwestern Georgia, little to no impact is anticipated.

* TORNADOES: Protect against a dangerous tornado event having possible significant impacts across the area. Potential impacts include: - The occurrence of scattered tornadoes can hinder the execution of emergency plans during tropical events. - Several places may experience tornado damage with a few spots of considerable damage, power loss, and communications failures. - Locations could realize roofs torn off frame houses, mobile homes demolished, boxcars overturned, large trees snapped or uprooted, vehicles tumbled, and small boats tossed about. Dangerous projectiles can add to the toll.

Protect against a tornado event having possible limited impacts for areas east of the I-75 corridor and the SE Florida Big Bend.

* WIND: Protect against dangerous wind having possible significant impacts across the Florida Panhandle. Potential impacts in this area include: - Some damage to roofing and siding materials, along with damage to porches, awnings, carports, and sheds. A few buildings experiencing window, door, and garage door failures. Mobile homes damaged, especially if unanchored. Unsecured lightweight objects become dangerous projectiles. - Several large trees snapped or uprooted, but with greater numbers in places where trees are shallow rooted. Several fences and roadway signs blown over. - Some roads impassable from large debris, and more within urban or heavily wooded places. A few bridges, causeways, and access routes impassable. - Scattered power and communications outages, but more prevalent in areas with above ground lines.

Also, protect against hazardous wind having possible limited impacts across the western Big Bend, and portions of Southwest Georgia.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS ----------------------------------

* EVACUATIONS: Follow the advice of local officials

* OTHER PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION: Now is the time to complete all preparations to protect life and property in accordance with your emergency plan. Ensure you are in a safe location before the onset of strong winds or possible flooding.

If you are relocating to safe shelter, leave as early as possible. Allow extra time to reach your destination. Many roads and bridges will be closed once strong winds arrive. Check the latest weather forecast before departing and drive with caution.

If heading to a community shelter, become familiar with the shelter rules before arrival, especially if you have special needs or have pets. Take essential items with you from your Emergency Supplies Kit.

Failure to adequately shelter may result in serious injury or loss of life. Always heed the advice of local officials and comply with any orders that are issued. Remember, during the storm 9 1 1 Emergency Services may not be able to immediately respond if conditions are unsafe. This should be a big factor in your decision making.

Keep cell phones well charged. Cell phone chargers for automobiles can be helpful, but be aware of your risk for deadly carbon monoxide poisoning if your car is left idling in a garage or other poorly ventilated area.

If you are a visitor, be sure to know the name of the city in which you are staying and the name of the county in which it resides. Listen for these locations in local news updates. Pay attention for instructions from local authorities.

Storm surge is the leading killer associated with tropical storms and hurricanes! Make sure you are in a safe area away from the surge zone. Even if you are not in a surge-prone area, you could find yourself cutoff by flood waters during and after the storm. Heed evacuation orders issued by the local authorities.

Rapidly rising flood waters are deadly. If you are in a flood-prone area, consider moving to higher ground. Never drive through a flooded roadway. Remember, turn around don't drown!

If a Tornado Warning is issued for your area, be ready to shelter quickly, preferably away from windows and in an interior room not prone to flooding. If driving, scan the roadside for quick shelter options.

If in a place that is vulnerable to high wind, such as near large trees, a manufactured home, upper floors of a high-rise building, or on a boat, consider moving to a safer shelter before the onset of strong winds or flooding.

Closely monitor weather.gov, NOAA Weather radio or local news outlets for official storm information. Be ready to adapt to possible changes to the forecast. Ensure you have multiple ways to receive weather warnings.

* ADDITIONAL SOURCES OF INFORMATION: - For information on appropriate preparations see ready.gov - For additional disaster preparedness information see redcross.org

NEXT UPDATE -----------

The next local statement will be issued by the National Weather Service in Tallahassee FL around 11 PM EDT, or sooner if conditions warrant.