Tropical Cyclone Local Statement

HLSHFO

This product covers the Hawaiian islands

**LOWELL MOVING CLOSER TO HAWAIIAN ISLANDS AND EXPECTED TO PRODUCE FLASH FLOODING DAMAGING WAVES AND HIGH WINDS**

NEW INFORMATION ---------------

* CHANGES TO WATCHES AND WARNINGS: - None

* CURRENT WATCHES AND WARNINGS: - A Hurricane Warning is in effect for Kauai East, Kauai Mountains, Kauai North, Kauai South, Kauai Southwest, and Niihau - A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Central Oahu, East Honolulu, Ewa Plain, Honolulu Metro, Koolau Leeward, Koolau Windward, Oahu North Shore, Olomana, Waianae Coast, and Waianae Mountains

* STORM INFORMATION: - About 280 miles southwest of Lihue or about 310 miles southwest of Honolulu - 18.7N 161.8W - Storm Intensity 110 mph - Movement North-northeast or 30 degrees at 17 mph

SITUATION OVERVIEW ------------------

Hurricane Lowell will bring damaging winds, heavy flooding rainfall, and extremely dangerous and damaging surf to portions of the Hawaiian Islands into Tuesday morning. While the center of Lowell is currently forecast to pass just west Niihau overnight, recent adjustments to the track forecast mean that the center of the hurricane will be closer to the islands and increase the threat of strong and damaging winds. A Hurricane Warning remains in effect for Kauai County, and a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Oahu. Preparations should be rushed to completion in the warned areas.

East to southeasterly winds will gradually strengthen through the day over the western half of the Hawaiian Islands. Damaging tropical storm force winds could develop as early as late this afternoon across Kauai County and early this evening on Oahu. Hurricane conditions are expected over portions of Kauai County overnight, with the highest probability of hurricane force winds occurring on Niihau as winds shift out of the south. It is important to note that winds can be accelerated over and downwind of terrain, leading to areas of hurricane force wind gusts.

A broad shield of deep tropical moisture surrounding Lowell will continue to spread over all Hawaiian islands today, increasing the threat of heavy rain and isolated thunderstorms. Heavy downpours could lead to flash flooding and/or mudslides, especially in steep terrain. Rainbands could become persistent and anchored in some areas, exacerbating the flash flood threat. The risk of flash flooding and mudslides is greatest for Kauai and Niihau, but also exists for all other islands due to the extent of the moisture associated with Lowell. Over 15 inches of rain is possible over portions of Kauai, mainly over the interior mountains. A foot or more is possible over southeast Big Island.

An extremely large south to southwest will rapidly build today and peak tonight over portions of Hawaiian waters. A High Surf Warning is in effect for south-facing shores of all islands and for west- facing shores of the Big Island. Dangerously large and damaging surf and coastal inundation are expected along the immediate coast of exposed south- and west-facing shores, particularly on Kauai and Niihau, and possibly Oahu. The highest surf may reach 20 to 30 feet on Kauai and Niihau tonight, then rapidly diminish on Tuesday. Extra large surf, on top of 1 to 4 feet of storm surge and peak afternoon high tides, will generate major wave run-up and coastal inundation along exposed low lying areas of south- and west-facing shores, particularly for Kauai and Niihau, and possibly for Oahu.

This afternoon, conditions will become favorable for fast-moving, short-lived waterspouts and tornadoes in the rainbands associated with Lowell, especially near Kauai and Niihau. This threat will continue into tonight, then diminish quickly Tuesday morning.

POTENTIAL IMPACTS -----------------

* WIND: Protect against life-threatening wind having possible extensive impacts across Niihau and Kauai. Potential impacts in this area include: - Considerable roof damage to sturdy buildings, with some having window, door, and garage door failures leading to structural damage. Mobile homes severely damaged, with some destroyed. Damage accentuated by airborne projectiles. Locations may be uninhabitable for weeks. - Many large trees snapped or uprooted along with fences and roadway signs blown over. - Some roads impassable from large debris, and more within urban or heavily wooded places. Several bridges, causeways, and access routes impassable. - Large areas with power and communications outages.

Also, protect against dangerous wind having possible limited to significant impacts across Oahu.

* FLOODING RAIN: Protect against life-threatening rainfall flooding having possible extensive impacts across Niihau and Kauai. Potential impacts include: - Major rainfall flooding may prompt many evacuations and rescues. - Rivers and tributaries may rapidly overflow their banks in multiple places. Small streams, creeks, canals, arroyos, and ditches may become dangerous rivers. In mountain areas, destructive runoff may run quickly down valleys while increasing susceptibility to rockslides and mudslides. Flood control systems and barriers may become stressed. - Flood waters can enter many structures within multiple communities, some structures becoming uninhabitable or washed away. Many places where flood waters may cover escape routes. Streets and parking lots become rivers of moving water with underpasses submerged. Driving conditions become dangerous. Many road and bridge closures with some weakened or washed out.

Protect against dangerous rainfall flooding having possible significant impacts across all other islands.

* SURGE: Protect against life-threatening surge having possible significant impacts across Niihau and Kauai. Potential impacts in this area include: - Areas of inundation with storm surge flooding accentuated by waves. Damage to several buildings, mainly near the coast. - Sections of near-shore escape routes and secondary roads become weakened or washed out, especially in usually vulnerable low spots. - Major beach erosion with heavy surf overtopping nearby roadways. - Moderate damage to marinas, docks, and piers. Several small craft broken away from moorings, especially in unprotected anchorages.

Elsewhere across the Hawaiian islands, little to no impact is anticipated.

* TORNADOES: Prepare for a dangerous tornado event having possible significant impacts across Niihau and Kauai. Potential impacts include: - The occurrence of scattered tornadoes can hinder the execution of emergency plans during tropical events. - Several places may experience tornado damage with a few spots of considerable damage, power loss, and communications failures. - Locations could realize roofs torn off frame houses, mobile homes demolished, boxcars overturned, large trees snapped or uprooted, vehicles tumbled, and small boats tossed about. Dangerous projectiles can add to the toll.

Prepare for a tornado event having possible limited impacts across the rest of the main Hawaiian Islands from Oahu to the Big Island.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS ----------------------------------

* EVACUATIONS: Follow the advice of local officials.

* OTHER PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION: Now is the time to complete all preparations to protect life and property in accordance with your emergency plan. Ensure you are in a safe location before the onset of strong winds or possible flooding.

If you are relocating to safe shelter, leave as early as possible. Allow extra time to reach your destination. Many roads and bridges will be closed once strong winds arrive. Check the latest weather forecast before departing and drive with caution.

If heading to a community shelter, become familiar with the shelter rules before arrival, especially if you have special needs or have pets. Take essential items with you from your Emergency Supplies Kit.

Failure to adequately shelter may result in serious injury or loss of life. Always heed the advice of local officials and comply with any orders that are issued. Remember, during the storm 9 1 1 Emergency Services may not be able to immediately respond if conditions are unsafe. This should be a big factor in your decision making.

Keep cell phones well charged. Cell phone chargers for automobiles can be helpful, but be aware of your risk for deadly carbon monoxide poisoning if your car is left idling in a garage or other poorly ventilated area.

It is important to remain calm, informed, and focused during an emergency. Be patient and helpful with those you encounter.

If you are a visitor, be sure to know the name of the city or town in which you are staying and the name of the county or parish in which it resides. Listen for these locations in local news updates. Pay attention for instructions from local authorities.

Storm surge is the leading killer associated with tropical storms and hurricanes! Make sure you are in a safe area away from the surge zone. Even if you are not in a surge-prone area, you could find yourself cutoff by flood waters during and after the storm. Heed evacuation orders issued by the local authorities.

Rapidly rising flood waters are deadly. If you are in a flood-prone area, consider moving to higher ground. Never drive through a flooded roadway. Remember, turn around don't drown!

If a Tornado Warning is issued for your area, be ready to shelter quickly, preferably away from windows and in an interior room not prone to flooding. If driving, scan the roadside for quick shelter options.

If in a place that is vulnerable to high wind, such as near large trees, a manufactured home, upper floors of a high-rise building, or on a boat, consider moving to a safer shelter before the onset of strong winds or flooding.

Closely monitor weather.gov, NOAA Weather radio or local news outlets for official storm information. Be ready to adapt to possible changes to the forecast. Ensure you have multiple ways to receive weather warnings.

* ADDITIONAL SOURCES OF INFORMATION: - For information on appropriate preparations see ready.gov - For information on creating an emergency plan see getagameplan.org - For additional disaster preparedness information see redcross.org

NEXT UPDATE -----------

The next local statement will be issued by the National Weather Service in Honolulu HI around 500 PM HST, or sooner if conditions warrant.