Tropical Cyclone Local Statement

HLSTAE

This product covers eastern Florida panhandle, Florida Big Bend, southeastern Alabama and southwestern Georgia.

**CONDITIONS DETERIORATING QUICKLY WITHIN THE STORM SURGE AND HURRICANE WARNING AREAS**

NEW INFORMATION ---------------

* CHANGES TO WATCHES AND WARNINGS: - None

* CURRENT WATCHES AND WARNINGS: - A Storm Surge Warning and Hurricane Warning are in effect for Coastal Bay and South Walton - A Hurricane Warning is in effect for Central Walton, Coffee, Geneva, Holmes, Inland Bay, North Walton, and Washington - A Storm Surge Warning and Tropical Storm Warning are in effect for Coastal Franklin, Coastal Gulf, Coastal Jefferson, and Coastal Wakulla - A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for Coastal Dixie and Coastal Taylor - A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Baker, Calhoun, Calhoun, Clay, Colquitt, Dale, Decatur, Dougherty, Early, Gadsden, Grady, Henry, Houston, Inland Franklin, Inland Gulf, Inland Jefferson, Inland Wakulla, Jackson, Lee, Leon, Miller, Mitchell, Northern Liberty, Quitman, Randolph, Seminole, Southern Liberty, Terrell, Thomas, and Worth

* STORM INFORMATION: - About 100 miles southwest of Walton Bay county line or about 180 miles west-southwest of Tallahassee - 29.2N 87.0W - Storm Intensity 115 mph - Movement North or 10 degrees at 17 mph

SITUATION OVERVIEW ------------------

...EXPECTED AND POSSIBLE TORNADOES THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT... ... PREPARATIONS SHOULD NOW BE COMPLETED...

At 5 PM ET, Hurricane Isaias was located over the Northern Gulf with maximum sustained winds of 115 mph and moving North at 17 mph. Isaias is forecast to continue on a northward track this evening towards the Florida/Alabama coastline. Hurricane Isaias is expected to maintain major hurricane status over the next few hours, with weakening expected to begin later tonight after Isaias makes landfall. Landfall is anticipated somewhere along the Western Florida Panhandle later this evening as a dangerous hurricane, nonetheless. A considerably large wind field combined with displaced convection east of the track fosters impacts are well beyond the forecast cone, particularly east of the hurricane's center.

Conditions have begun to deteriorate across the Florida Panhandle and Big Bend today and will spread further inland later this evening and tonight. Residents should have finalized their preparations.

The hurricane's fast forward speed following landfall will also lead to the wind threat extending farther inland, especially near the core of the storm.

A Storm Surge Warning remains in effect for the all of our Panhandle and Big Bend coast. Life-threatening inundation values of 6 to 9 feet above normally dry ground are forecast across the coastal Panhandle to Grayton Beach. From Grayton Beach to Indian Pass, 4 to 7 feet, 4 to 6 feet from Indian Pass to the Steinhatchee River, and 3 to 5 feet from the Steinhatchee River to Suwannee River, coincident with the high tide. The greatest surge risk will be today into Saturday. Coastal saltwater flooding may linger through Saturday from persistent onshore flow.

Soggy conditions across the region from recent rainfall will make much of the Tri-state area more sensitive to flooding from additional heavy rainfall from Isaias. Forecast rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches are expected across much of the area from the storm. Localized totals up to 15 inches are possible, especially within banding across the Florida Panhandle and Big Bend. Such values would be capable of producing isolated to scattered flash flooding. Localized considerable flash flooding is also possible where bands of heavy rain move repeatedly over the same area. Given these factors, a Flood Watch is in effect for the Tri-State area through Saturday evening. Minor to isolated moderate river flooding appears likely from the anticipated rain.

Isaias will also bring a heightened tornado risk across the Florida Panhandle and FL Big Bend this evening into Saturday and Southeast AL & Southwest GA late tonight into Saturday. Several tornadoes, a few may be strong, are possible from outer and trailing rain bands.

POTENTIAL IMPACTS -----------------

* FLOODING RAIN: Potential impacts from the flooding rain are unfolding across the eastern Florida Panhandle and the FL Big Bend. If realized, these impacts include: - Major rainfall flooding may prompt many evacuations and rescues. - Rivers and tributaries may rapidly overflow their banks in multiple places. Small streams, creeks, and ditches may become dangerous rivers. Flood control systems and barriers may become stressed. - Flood waters can enter many structures within multiple communities, some structures becoming uninhabitable or washed away. Many places where flood waters may cover escape routes. Streets and parking lots become rivers of moving water with underpasses submerged. Driving conditions become dangerous. Many road and bridge closures with some weakened or washed out.

Potential impacts from the flooding rain are will spread inland across the Florida Big Bend and FL Panhandle moving into SE Alabama and portions of SW Georgia.

* TORNADOES: Potential impacts from tornadoes are unfolding across the Florida Big Bend coastline. If realized, these impacts include: - The occurrence of numerous tornadoes can greatly hinder the execution of emergency plans during tropical events. - Many places may experience tornado damage with a few spots of immense destruction, power loss, and communications failures. - Locations could realize roof and wall failures of sturdy buildings with some being leveled, structures upon weak foundations blown away, mobile homes obliterated, large trees twisted and snapped with forested trees uprooted, vehicles lifted off the ground and thrown, and small boats destroyed. Large and deadly projectiles can add to the toll.

Potential impacts from tornadoes are expected to move further inland across the Florida Big Bend and SW Georgia. Remain well braced against a dangerous tornado event having significant impacts.

* SURGE: Potential impacts from the main surge event are now unfolding across the Florida Panhandle coast. Remain well away from life-threatening surge having extensive impacts. If realized, these impacts include: - Large areas of deep inundation with storm surge flooding accentuated by battering waves. Structural damage to buildings, with several washing away. Damage compounded by floating debris. Locations may be uninhabitable for an extended period. - Large sections of near-shore escape routes and secondary roads washed out or severely flooded. Flood control systems and barriers may become stressed. - Severe beach erosion with significant dune loss. - Major damage to marinas, docks, boardwalks, and piers. Many small craft broken away from moorings, especially in unprotected anchorages with some lifted onshore and stranded.

Elsewhere across eastern Florida panhandle, Florida Big Bend, southeastern Alabama and southwestern Georgia, little to no impact is anticipated.

* WIND: Potential impacts from the main wind event are now unfolding across the Tri-State area. Remain well sheltered from life-threatening wind having devastating impacts. If realized, these impacts include: - Structural damage to sturdy buildings, some with complete roof and wall failures. Complete destruction of mobile homes. Damage greatly accentuated by large airborne projectiles. Locations may be uninhabitable for weeks or months. - Numerous large trees snapped or uprooted along with fences and roadway signs blown over. - Many roads impassable from large debris, and more within urban or heavily wooded places. Many bridges, causeways, and access routes impassable. - Widespread power and communications outages.

Potential impacts from the main wind event are expected to continue across the Tri-State area. Remain well sheltered from life- threatening wind having limited to extensive impacts.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS ----------------------------------

* EVACUATIONS: Follow the advice of local officials.

* OTHER PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION: Now is the time to stay inside and away from windows. Listen for updates and be ready in case you lose electrical power. Keep a battery- powered radio, charged cell phone and flashlight handy.

During the peak of the storm be ready to move quickly. Keep your shoes on and rain gear handy. Boots and athletic shoes offer the best foot protection if you become unexpectedly exposed to the weather.

Keep your cell phone charged and in power-saving mode. If you lose power, use it sparingly and mainly for personal emergencies and check-ins.

Do not venture outside while in the eye of a hurricane as any improvement in weather will only be temporary. Once the eye passes, conditions will become life threatening as winds immediately return to dangerous speeds, so remain safely sheltered from the storm.

Do not be a thrill seeker or risk your life for senseless photos or videos.

Quickly move to the safest place within your shelter if it begins to fail, preferably an interior room on the lowest floor as long as flooding is not a concern.

If you are prone to flooding or in an area under a storm surge watch or warning, be prepared for the possibility of a quick and dramatic rise in water levels.

If a tornado warning is issued for your area, quickly move to the safest place within your shelter. Protect your head and body.

* ADDITIONAL SOURCES OF INFORMATION: - For information on appropriate preparations see ready.gov - For additional disaster preparedness information see redcross.org

NEXT UPDATE -----------

The next local statement will be issued by the National Weather Service in Tallahassee FL around 12 AM EDT, or sooner if conditions warrant.