Hydrologic Outlook

ESFGUM

This Hydrologic Outlook is for Guam, Rota, Tinian, and Saipan.

Invest 96W is still a broad, disorganized disturbance located about 300 miles north of Kosrae. Ensemble model guidance continues to show a passage anywhere between south of Guam to north of Saipan as a tropical storm or typhoon. Uncertainty is still high regarding timing, location, and intensity, but the potential for locally heavy rainfall and flooding continues to increase approaching this weekend.

This is expected to produce 5 to 8 inches of rainfall between Saturday and Monday, with localized amounts up to 12 inches possible.

As showers are likely to persist, consistent rainfall is likely to saturate the soils enough to increase chance for mudslides.

Residents on these islands need to closely monitor this developing situation as flood watches, advisories and flash flood warnings could be issued later this weekend.

If living near streams and rivers, prepare to move items away from stream and river banks. Make sure storm drains nearby are not clogged, especially If living at low-lying areas.