Special Weather Statement

The Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) has upgraded Invest 95W to a "high" for development with a Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert, meaning it is expected to develop into a significant tropical cyclone (a Tropical Depression) within 24 hours. Invest 95W remains very broad, spanning much of the northern half of the Marshall Islands and Kosrae State, with the circulation extending westward to beyond Pohnpei and eastward to around Majuro. The circulation center is currently located near Ujae Atoll at 9.0N 164.6E. Maximum sustained winds are estimated at 20 to 25 mph.

Invest 95W is expected to continue developing as it maintains a general west-northwest track over the next few days, with potential to become a typhoon over the open ocean as it approaches the Marianas. Recent model trends continue to favor a passage somewhere through the Marianas late this weekend or very early next week, but it is still too early to have high confidence on any particular track, development, or exact timing. Invest 95W is in the process or consolidating/strengthening. However, confidence will continue to increase as it organizes and departs the RMI.

Latest model guidance suggests that a track through the Marianas could have the potential to bring significant impacts to the islands, including localized flooding, damaging winds, and coastal inundation. At the very least, locally heavy showers, windy conditions, and potentially hazardous seas and surf may begin to develop starting around Sunday. Ensemble guidance currently suggests amounts ranging from 6 to 10 inches, with locally higher amounts possible. For now, residents should stay informed with the latest forecasts and updates from the National Weather Service in Tiyan, Guam, as well as from local government and emergency management.

For more information on Invest 95W, please refer to the Significant Tropical Weather Advisory from the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) under WMO header ABPW10 PGTW and the Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert from the Joint Typhoon Warning Center under WMO header WTPN21 PGTW.