Special Weather Statement

Invest 95W is currently draped across the central Marshall Islands as an elongated, disorganized disturbance, with a centerpoint located at 9N168E, roughly due north of Kwajalein. This centerpoint sits between two circulation centers on 95W's western and eastern sides, roughly north-northeast of Kosrae and north of Majuro, respectively. The Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) still rates Invest 95W as "medium" for development, meaning it will likely develop into a significant tropical cyclone (a Tropical Depression), but not within 24 hours.

Satellite depicts deep convection to the west and northwest of Majuro, associated with the nearby circulation center, and latest observations depict light winds at the surface. Conditions have eased since the heavy rains and strong winds that caused power outages on Majuro last night, but Invest 95W continues to develop and consolidate, supporting a continuation of unusual southwest swell and the potential for additional west to southwest wind bursts through at least Tuesday. This will maintain elevated surf along south- and west- facing reefs and support combined seas of 6 to 8 feet. Stronger southwest winds could allow waves to pile up along the lagoon side of the eastern reefs and islands of the atoll. Properties along west- to southwest-facing coastlines may see minor wave run- up and coastal inundation, especially during times of high tide with the current full moon cycle. With this in mind, a Coastal Flood Statement remains in effect for Majuro through late tonight, and could be extended. In addition, a Small Craft Advisory remains in effect through late tonight as gusty, surging southwest winds may produce choppy seas that are at times hazardous to small craft.

Latest model guidances favors Invest 95W to gradually consolidate about the westernmost circulation through tonight and Tuesday, with 95W then strengthening as it meanders north-northwest across the northwestern RMI into the latter half of the week, as a fairly large storm with potential to become a typhoon. As a result, winds will shift southerly across the Marshalls, then southeasterly as 95W moves away. For more information on Invest 95W, please refer to bulletins from the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) under WMO header ABPW10 PGTW.