Tropical Cyclone Local Statement

HLSMOB

This product covers portions of southwest Alabama...northwest Florida...south central Alabama...and inland southeast Mississippi.

**TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS BEGINNING ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST**

NEW INFORMATION ---------------

* CHANGES TO WATCHES AND WARNINGS: - The Tropical Storm Watch has been upgraded to a Tropical Storm Warning for Perry, Stone, and Wayne

* CURRENT WATCHES AND WARNINGS: - A Storm Surge Warning and Hurricane Warning are in effect for Baldwin Central, Baldwin Coastal, Escambia Coastal, Mobile Central, Mobile Coastal, Okaloosa Coastal, and Santa Rosa Coastal - A Hurricane Warning is in effect for Baldwin Inland, Conecuh, Covington, Escambia, Escambia Inland, Mobile Inland, Okaloosa Inland, and Santa Rosa Inland - A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Butler, Choctaw, Clarke, Crenshaw, George, Greene, Monroe, Perry, Stone, Washington, Wayne, and Wilcox

* STORM INFORMATION: - About 170 miles south-southeast of Mobile AL or about 140 miles south of Pensacola FL - 28.4N 87.2W - Storm Intensity 120 mph - Movement North-northeast or 20 degrees at 16 mph

SITUATION OVERVIEW ------------------

Major Hurricane Isaias continues to move towards the north-northeast near 16 mph toward the north central Gulf Coast. Isaias is expected to still be a damaging hurricane when it makes landfall this evening. It is important not to focus just on the center as the wind field will expand by landfall, resulting in the potential for significant wind impacts and a life threatening storm surge along and to the east of where the hurricane makes landfall. In addition, strong wind gusts are expected to develop west of the center across extreme southwest Alabama late this afternoon into the early evening hours, with gusts in excess of 80 mph possible.

Peak storm surge inundation of 6 to 9 feet above normally dry ground is possible along the coast of the western Florida panhandle. Evacuation orders have been issued by some coastal counties and you should check with your local emergency management agency for the latest information.

Those in the hurricane warning need to prepare for damaging hurricane force winds of 74 to 110 mph, potentially stronger, especially across coastal Alabama and the western Florida Panhandle. The strongest winds will occur near and just to the east of the center. Potential impacts from these winds include numerous downed trees and power lines, significant power outages, and some roof damage. Tropical storm force winds will spread well inland with hurricane force gusts likely into south central Alabama as the center of Isaias quickly moves north.

Rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches are expected across southwest ALabama, south central Alabama, and the western Florida Panhandle. Localized amounts of 10 to 12 inches are possible in bands across the Florida Panhandle and near the center track of the storm. Areas of flooding are likely if the higher amounts are realized, with considerable impacts possible. In addition, there is an increasing risk for tornadoes as early as this afternoon and into tonight east of where the central Isaias tracks. The greatest threat will be across the western Florida Panhandle and south central Alabama.

POTENTIAL IMPACTS -----------------

* SURGE: Protect against life-threatening surge having possible extensive impacts across the coastal portions of the western Florida panhandle and Alabama. Potential impacts in this area include: - Large areas of deep inundation with storm surge flooding accentuated by battering waves. Structural damage to buildings, with several washing away. Damage compounded by floating debris. Locations may be uninhabitable for an extended period. - Large sections of near-shore escape routes and secondary roads washed out or severely flooded. Flood control systems and barriers may become stressed. - Severe beach erosion with significant dune loss. - Major damage to marinas, docks, boardwalks, and piers. Many small craft broken away from moorings, especially in unprotected anchorages with some lifted onshore and stranded.

Elsewhere across portions of southwest Alabama...south central Alabama...and inland southeast Mississippi, little to no impact is anticipated.

* WIND: Protect against life-threatening wind having possible devastating impacts across the western Florida Panhandle, portions of southwestern Alabama and portions of south central Alabama. Potential impacts in this area include: - Structural damage to sturdy buildings, some with complete roof and wall failures. Complete destruction of mobile homes. Damage greatly accentuated by large airborne projectiles. Locations may be uninhabitable for weeks or months. - Numerous large trees snapped or uprooted along with fences and roadway signs blown over. - Many roads impassable from large debris, and more within urban or heavily wooded places. - Widespread power and communications outages.

Also, protect against life-threatening wind having possible limited to extensive impacts across inland southeast Mississippi, far inland southwest Alabama, and south central Alabama.

* FLOODING RAIN: Protect against life-threatening rainfall flooding having possible extensive impacts across all of southwest and south central Alabama and the western Florida panhandle. Potential impacts include: - Major rainfall flooding may prompt many evacuations and rescues. - Rivers and tributaries may rapidly overflow their banks in multiple places. Small streams, creeks, canals, and ditches may become dangerous rivers. Flood control systems and barriers may become stressed. - Flood waters can enter many structures within multiple communities, some structures becoming uninhabitable or washed away. Many places where flood waters may cover escape routes. Streets and parking lots become rivers of moving water with underpasses submerged. Driving conditions become dangerous. Many road and bridge closures with some weakened or washed out.

Protect against dangerous rainfall flooding having possible limited to significant impacts across interior southeast Mississippi.

* TORNADOES: Protect against a dangerous tornado event having possible significant impacts across northwest Florida and south central Alabama. Potential impacts include: - The occurrence of scattered tornadoes can hinder the execution of emergency plans during tropical events. - Several places may experience tornado damage with a few spots of considerable damage, power loss, and communications failures. - Locations could realize roofs torn off frame houses, mobile homes demolished, boxcars overturned, large trees snapped or uprooted, vehicles tumbled, and small boats tossed about. Dangerous projectiles can add to the toll.

Protect against a tornado event having possible limited impacts across southwest Alabama.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS ----------------------------------

* EVACUATIONS: Evacuation orders have been issued across some coastal counties. Follow the advice of local officials and check with local emergency management for the latest information.

* OTHER PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION: Now is the time to complete all preparations to protect life and property in accordance with your emergency plan. Ensure you are in a safe location before the onset of strong winds or possible flooding.

If you are relocating to safe shelter, leave as early as possible. Allow extra time to reach your destination. Many roads and bridges will be closed once strong winds arrive. Check the latest weather forecast before departing and drive with caution.

Failure to adequately shelter may result in serious injury or loss of life. Always heed the advice of local officials and comply with any orders that are issued. Remember, during the storm 9 1 1 Emergency Services may not be able to immediately respond if conditions are unsafe. This should be a big factor in your decision making.

Storm surge is the leading killer associated with tropical storms and hurricanes! Make sure you are in a safe area away from the surge zone. Even if you are not in a surge-prone area, you could find yourself cutoff by flood waters during and after the storm. Heed evacuation orders issued by the local authorities.

Closely monitor weather.gov, NOAA Weather radio or local news outlets for official storm information. Be ready to adapt to possible changes to the forecast. Ensure you have multiple ways to receive weather warnings.

* ADDITIONAL SOURCES OF INFORMATION: - For the latest detailed evacuation and shelter information...please refer to your local emergency management agency at the phone number or website listed below. - Coastal Alabama: - Baldwin County: 251-972-6807 or www.baldwincountyal.gov/departments/EMA - Mobile County: 251-460-8000 or mobilecountyema.gov - Northwest Florida: - Escambia County: 850-471-6400 or myescambia.com/beready - Santa Rosa County: 850-983-5360 www.santarosa.fl.gov/emergency - Okaloosa County: 850-651-7150 or myokaloosa.com/emergency-management - For information on appropriate preparations see ready.gov - For additional disaster preparedness information see redcross.org

NEXT UPDATE -----------

The next local statement will be issued by the National Weather Service in Mobile AL around 4 PM CDT, or sooner if conditions warrant.