Special Weather Statement

The tropical disturbance, Invest 95W, has been upgraded and is now Tropical Depression 09W. TD 09W was located 145 miles east- southeast Ujelang, or 245 miles north of Kosrae. It was located near 8.9N 162.9E, with a movement west (275 degrees) at 12 mph. This places the center of 09W 345 miles east-northeast of Pohnpei. 09W is forecast to continue strengthening, possibly becoming a tropical storm sometime Thursday, with a slight turn to the west-northwest.

The bulk of the numerical model forecasts show this system will continue to strengthen through at least the weekend, possibly into the first half of next week. There remains a fair amount of uncertainty with the eventual track of this system as it approaches the Marianas.

WHAT WE KNOW: Will it track through the Marianas... Yes Will it be a typhoon... Good probability Should we start preparing now... Absolutely Where will it track... Somewhere between Guam and Pagan appears most likely.

SUMMARY: The potential for a significant tropical cyclone passing through the Marianas remains a distinct possibility. However, the eventual track through the Marianas remains uncertain. Folks should prepare for the possibility 6 to 12 inches of rainfall, the potential for strong winds, and the potential for significant storm impacts. Please continue to follow us on social media and at:

www.weather.gov/gum