Hydrologic Outlook

ESFGUM

This Hydrologic Outlook is for Guam, Rota, Tinian, and Saipan.

A reinvigorated monsoon trough with a potential embedded tropical disturbance that was previously expected to develop and bring periods of heavy rainfall to the Marianas beginning Wednesday, has continued to fallen behind. The mid to long-term model guidance continues to show a downward trend in any potential cyclogenesis, with the enhanced monsoon pattern now likely to fall apart over the next few days, pushing back any potential heavy rainfall into the weekend, potentially even into early next week as the col overhead lingers and forces diffusive flow. Due to this uncertainty, this will be the last Hydrologic Outlook issued for this rain event, unless conditions warrant a new issuance in the coming days.